Impact Assessment of Investment Programmes
The Challenge
Applied research, development and innovation activities permit the introduction of new products and processes. Research and innovation processes produce direct and indirect impacts, these are the result of complex interactions and responses from economic, social, environmental and cultural factors.
Investment programmes are important for the development of companies and the production system, but the evaluation of their impacts is perhaps even more vital in order to measure the benefits. Assessing the impact of an investment, especially in technological research programmes, is therefore a fundamental and indispensable activity.
Eurokleis has followed this approach in order to carry out an analysis of the development and innovation research programmes funded by the European Commission in sectors such as e-infrastructures, media, software, service and technologies for the enhancement of cultural heritage and digital social innovation. The results obtained during this were relevant enough to suggest and support the need for an in-depth analysis of the micro-foundations but also for the evaluation of the effects of macroeconomics.
The Solution
The assessment of the economic effects of R&D projects requires sophisticated methods to measure the growth of domestic productivity and external demand, as well as employment. The estimate of GDP growth, employment and improvement of living conditions requires a long analysis which Eurokleis is able to produce, thanks to its experience.
Project performance evaluation techniques are numerous. Eurokleis’ chosen method is influenced by several factors, including social and organisational contexts, levels of analysis, goals, prospects of assessment, investment objectives and ICT.
As suggested by the literature, for the quantification of the impact of an investment, one follows an approach that analyses:
- The inputs of the investment, the resources required, the product developed
- Outputs of the products or services provided
- Immediate results and changes resulting from an intentional or unintentional activity
- The impacts of the differences created by an activity after output and the interaction between the society and the economy.
Monitoring and ex-post evaluation activities are therefore carried out through a combination of qualitative, statistical and econometric techniques in order to analyse the effects of policy interventions.
Budget FP7
Budget H2020
Budget FP9 (stima)
The European Commission estimates that the Seventh Framework Program (FP7) has created 25.71 direct jobs and 80 indirect jobs for each million invested. Eurokleis’ estimate of the sample of 60 projects analysed is 14.98 direct jobs and 18.84 indirect jobs per million invested in the program.
The Cost-Benefit Analysis aims to assess the net economic impact of a public investment project or program. This approach is used to determine if the project results are those desired (ex-ante or ex-post ones) using monetary values. The ACB also considers the role of external factors by taking into account market distortions through shadow prices.
The counterfactual approach to the assessment of the effects of public policies aims at verifying the ability to change the behaviours or conditions of a given target population in the desired direction, or to determine to what extent the intervention – rather than other factors – has contributed to the achievement of a certain result.
The effect is defined as the difference between what happened after the implementation of a policy (factual situation) and what would have happened if that same policy had not been realised (counterfactual situation).
Author of the article
Francesco Bellini
senior partner & founder - Innovation & Finance
Chartered Accountant and Accounting Auditor
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